Whether you’re in subscriptions, donations, services, or sales, controlling customer churn means protecting your growth and making your hard-won relationships last longer. Understanding why customers leave – and acting on that information – is one of the most valuable ways you can improve retention, loyalty, and long-term success.
You might think that to do this, you need a churn model. And you do, but that’s only half the story.
What’s a churn model?
A churn model is a predictive tool. It analyses past customer behaviour and tries to flag who’s most at risk of leaving before they actually do. Think of it like a weather forecast: useful, but not the same as knowing whether you’ve packed your umbrella.
Building a model involves pulling together your data, spotting behavioural signals, and training an algorithm to detect patterns. You’ll need data scientists, clean historical data, and a clear definition of churn to get going.
But even the best churn model doesn’t save customers. It just tells you who’s on the way out.
What’s a churn programme?
A churn programme, on the other hand, is a whole strategy. It includes the model – and everything else that turns insight into action, including:
Agreed definitions of churn across the business
Before you do anything, everyone – from marketing, to finance, to customer success – needs to be on the same page about what churn actually is. Is it a cancellation? A drop in spend? No engagement for 90 days? Without this alignment, your efforts risk chasing the wrong outcomes.
Data pipelines that refresh and retrain your model regularly
Customer behaviour isn’t static, and your model shouldn’t be either. A good churn programme makes sure your data flows in automatically, so the model stays up to date, accurate, and responsive to shifting patterns.
Teams ready to act on churn risk scores
Predictions are only useful if someone picks them up and runs with them. That means making sure your sales, service, or marketing teams know what to do with churn risk alerts – and have the time and tools to respond.
Playbooks for re-engagement (emails, offers, outreach)
Knowing a customer is at risk is just the first step. You also need a tested, ready-to-go plan for what to do – whether that’s a personalised offer, a call from an account manager, or a well-timed nudge email.
Test-and-learn strategies to see what actually works
Not every save attempt will land – and that’s okay. A strong programme includes a culture of experimentation: A/B testing different tactics, measuring what moves the needle, and improving your approach over time.
So… which one do you need?
If you’re trying to decide where to start, ask yourself this: Are we looking for insight – or impact?
If you just want to understand who’s likely to leave, a churn model might be enough. But if you want to do something about it – and actually stop people leaving – you’ll need a churn programme.
That means building the processes, roles, and responses that turn data into decisions.
Don’t fall into the trap of thinking a churn model is a silver bullet. It’s a tool – an important one – but it only delivers real value when it’s embedded in a wider programme that’s designed to act on its insights.
The organisations that succeed at customer retention aren’t just predicting churn, they’re preventing it.
If you think you need to do something about churn in your organisation, download So you want a churn model… 5 questions to ask before you get started – it’s a great place to start.
