Universities and colleges know that every student matters. Retaining learners isn’t just about hitting enrolment targets – it’s about helping people succeed, building a vibrant community and ensuring your institution grows in the right way.
But when students leave early, the impact is felt across the board – from course completion rates to funding, to reputation. That’s why understanding why students step away, and acting before it’s too late, is one of the most powerful things you can do to support student success.
At this point you might be thinking: isn’t that what a retention model is for? Well, yes… but only partly.
So, what exactly is a retention model?
A retention model is a predictive system that looks at past student journeys and tries to identify who’s showing the early signs of disengagement. It gives you a picture of what’s likely to happen, but it doesn’t tell you how to respond.
Getting one up and running usually involves pulling together your student data, spotting behaviour that signals trouble – like falling attendance or a sudden dip in grades – and using algorithms to recognise those patterns in new students.
But remember, a model can only point out the risk. On its own, it doesn’t keep students enrolled.
And what about a retention programme?
A retention programme takes those insights and turns them into meaningful action. It’s not just about the tech – it’s about building the culture, processes and playbooks that help your teams intervene effectively.
That might mean…
1
Agreeing what counts as a signifier
Different departments often have different views – is it a student who hasn’t attended a lecture in a month? Someone who hasn’t logged into the virtual learning environment for weeks? Aligning on a definition makes sure everyone’s focused on the same goal.
2
Keeping the model current
Students’ lives change, so your predictions should too. A programme makes sure your data is updated regularly and your model learns from new patterns.
3
Making the insights actionable
Who gets alerted when a student is flagged? Do advisors reach out? Do tutors step in? A good programme makes these workflows crystal clear.
4
Having responses ready
When a warning sign appears, speed matters. That could mean a supportive check-in email, a call from a tutor, or a referral to wellbeing services. The key is being prepared.
5
Experimenting and learning
Not every intervention works in the same way for every student. A strong programme builds in space to test, adapt, and find out what really helps.
Which one do you really need?
If your aim is simply to spot students who might leave, a retention model could be enough. But if you want to actually change outcomes – to help more students stay and thrive – then you’ll need a full programme. Because a model is just a signal. It’s the programme that turns those signals into timely, human action.
The universities leading the way in student success aren’t just predicting risk. They’re building the structures to reduce it.
If you want to explore what that looks like in practice, download our guide: So you want a student retention model… 5 questions to ask before you get started.
