Digging for digital donations
Dogs Trust noticed more donors were responding online to traditional direct mail appeals. Since online responses are cheaper to process, their individual giving team wanted to identify supporters most likely to switch channels. The aim was to reduce print costs by sending smaller, “DM Lite” packs to digital-first donors and encourage wider online engagement. They approached us to build a model that could predict online response behaviour, helping them make smarter mailing decisions and optimise fundraising efficiency without compromising donation rates or the supporter experience.
Not if, but how
We analysed four years of campaign data to build a bespoke propensity model that predicted not just if someone would respond, but how – online or offline. Supporters were grouped by channel preference and we identified key predictors like age, email contactability, and recruitment channel. The model was highly accurate, finding 86% of digital responders in the top 20% of the file. We tested it across a recent campaign and gave tailored recommendations: use DM Lite for clear digital responders, test it for high-scoring non-responders, and include QR codes and email follow-ups to push digital journeys further.
Invaluable insight
The model successfully predicted online behaviour, especially among new recruits, who responded online at over 4x the average rate. Where DM Lite was used with the right groups, it improved net income thanks to lower costs. However, the lighter packs did suppress response rates in some offline-only segments, so Dogs Trust were cautious in rollout. Still, the learnings were powerful. Future campaigns can now better target digital-first donors, reduce costs and move towards more sustainable supporter engagement. Over time, this approach is expected to generate stronger ROI and higher digital uptake.
